Breaking down the math of an unprecedented result in Chhattisgarh

Of the three states the Congress has lost to the BJP in the latest round of assembly elections, its victory margin in 2018 was the biggest in Chhattisgarh. The BJP, will now have 54 MLAs in the new Chhattisgarh assembly compared to just 15 in 2018. What explains the BJP’s victory in Chhattisgarh elections? Three factors can be listed.

While the BJP’s seat tally of 54 is lower than what the Congress had in 2018, its vote share is the highest ever any party has managed in Chhattisgarh since 2003 when the state was formed.

Also read: The inability to retain mandate haunts Congress

This shows that at least in terms of popular support, the BJP’s victory is even bigger than what the Congress had managed in 2018. This holds true even if one looks at the median vote share of the BJP and Congress.

The BJP’s median vote share across constituencies — the middle value if arranged from lowest to highest across constituencies — is the highest ever for a winning party in Chhattisgarh. (See Chart 1)

29 of the 90 assembly constituencies (ACs) in Chhattisgarh are reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates. The number of unreserved and Scheduled Caste (SC) reserve ACs in Chhattisgarh is 51 and 10.

A comparison of BJP’s seat share in ST, SC and unreserved ACs shows that it has recorded the biggest proportional improvement in its seat share in the ST reserved ACs — data in sync with the party’s outreach to tribals across India.

To be sure, this does not mean that the BJP’s victory can only be attributed to ST voters. Its seat share performance has improved across all ACs and the BJP’s best ever seat share, historically speaking, is in unreserved ACs.

As far as ST reserved seats are concerned, the BJP has performed better in these ACs in the 2003 and 2008 ACs. (See Chart 2)

Yes, it did. Of the 44 ACs that the Congress won at least twice between 2008 and 2018 — a comparison before 2008 is not possible because constituency boundaries were changed as part of delimitation exercise before the 2008 election — the BJP has won 25 in 2023.

Similarly, it has won four of the nine seats the Congress won in all three elections from 2008 to 2018. On the other hand, the BJP has held on to its own strongholds.

It has retained 18 of the 25 seats it won twice between 2008 and 2018 and retained five of the six it won in all three of those elections. (See Chart 3)