Exit Polls: BJP set to retain UP, AAP a shock Punjab winner, tight race in Goa

The BJP is set to retain power in Uttar Pradesh and, in a big surprise, the Aam Aadmi Party is set to form the government in Punjab, according to exit polls released Monday after Assembly elections in five states. Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur joined UP and Punjab in holding elections over the past two months. The BJP is fighting to retain four states, with the Congress looking to hold on to Punjab. 

Full Coverage: 2022 Assembly Elections Exit Poll Results

1. Republic P-Marq, India Today-Axis My India, and Times Now-Veto all give the BJP a thumping win in Uttar Pradesh, with the Yogi Adityanath government set to return. Republic and Times Now give the ruling party 225-255 and 225 seats, respectively, in the 403-member Assembly, while India Today and News24-Today's Chanakya give them a much larger share - 288-326 and 275-313.

2. Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party will be the main opposition in each case. Times Now gives them 151 seats and Republic 130-150, with India Today predicting between 71 and 101 and ABP-CVoter giving them 132-148 seats. The Congress is a (disappointing and) distant third in all three exit polls, with Mayawati's BSP outperforming them.

3. In Punjab (and in perhaps the biggest shock of these elections), Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party is set to spring a massive surprise and form the government, taking advantage of a feud within the ruling Congress that drove out former chief minister Amarinder Singh. The Akalis and the Congress are fighting it out for the post of main opposition, with the BJP (which had allied with Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress) a distant third.

4. India Today-Axis My India and News24-Today's Chanakya both give AAP over 75 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly; News 24 predicts a whopping 89-111 seats for Kejriwal. ABP News-CVoter gives AAP between 51 and 61 seats, while Republic P-Marq gives it 62-70 seats. Times Now-Veto gives it 70 seats.

MUST READ: AAP win in Punjab predicted, Congress's Sunil Jakhar responds

5. The Congress' best predicted result is between 25 and 31 seats (Republic P-Marq) and 19-31 (India Today-Axis My India), with its worst being News24-Today's Chanakya's estimate of 3-17 seats. The Akalis don't fare any better; News24-Today's Chanakya gives them between 1 and 11 seats and ABP News-CVoter a best of 20-26 seats. The BJP gets a best estimate of 7-13 from ABP.

EXIT POLLS: Surveys don't matter, we'll get over 300 seats in UP - Akhilesh

6. There is better news for the BJP in Uttarakhand, with India Today-Axis My India, News24-Today's Chanakya, Republic P-Marq, and Times Now-Veto all giving it a win over the Congress. India Today-Axis My India gives it 36-46 seats, News24-Today's Chanakya 36-50 and Times Now-Veto 37. Republic gives them between 35 and 39 seats.

7. However, ABP News-CVoter is leaning the other way, giving the Congress 32-38 seats in the 70-member Assembly and the BJP 26-32. The AAP is not likely to repeat its Punjab heroics, with a best predicted return of 5 by India Today.

MUST READ: 'There will be more seats...': Uttarakhand CM on exit poll results

8. Goa will see an extraordinarily tight race, according to four exit polls. India Today-Axis My India gives the Congress the edge with 15-20 seats to the BJP's 14-18. ABP News-CVoter and Republic P-Marq are on the fence. ABP gives the BJP 13-17 and the Congress 12-16, while Republic has 13-17 for both. Times Now-Veto splits it 16-14 in favour of the Congress. The majority mark in the 40-member house is 21, meaning a hung house is likely and regional outfits Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party and the Goa Forward Party will again be key.

9. The Trinamool Congress, which has allied with local outfit MGP, has not made much of a dent in this election; its best prediction is ABP News' 5-9 seats.

10. In Manipur, Republic P-Marq gives the ruling BJP and its allies an easy win with 27-31 of 60 seats. While they may fall short of the majority of 31, the Congress is expected to win only 11-17, giving the BJP wriggle room to form post-poll deals with local parties. Times Now gives the BJP a more comfortable 32-38 seats and India Today an even more comfortable 33-43 result.

Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong