Can Chirag be BJP’s trump card in Bihar?

The LJP (RV) leader had a long meeting with the union minister of state for home affairs Nityanand Rai last Sunday and has been extended an invite to attend the all-important NDA meeting on July 18. The grapevine is that he would also be accommodated in the union cabinet.

Why Chirag matters for the BJP

The ground for his return to the NDA was prepared during last year’s Assembly by-polls in Gopalganj, Kurhani and Mokama.

Paswan emerged as the biggest crowd-puller for the NDA, leaving behind BJP’s Bihar leadership. His influence as a young and emerging leader in his community is said to be increasing as well.

Earlier this year in April, when he attended a public event in Bihar’s Mokama to mark the birth anniversary of ‘Baba Chauharmal’, a revered figure among the Paswans, a Dalit community, a large crowd turned up to attend it, many among who wanted to catch a glimpse of the young leader.

Samrat Choudhary, BJP state chief, is said to have been impressed by Paswan’s crowd-pulling prowess.

Ever since the exit of Nitish Kumar-led JD (U) from the NDA, the BJP has realised that the 2024 Lok Sabha election is going to be a tough fight between the BJP and 'Mahagathbandhan' (grand alliance) in Bihar. And that is why, the saffron party has realised the importance of smaller parties, which could play a key role in the polls.

There are a few small parties in the fray including Paswan’s LJP, Hindustani Awam Morcha, led by Jitan Ram Manjhi, Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party, led by Pashupati Kumar Paras, Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP), headed by Mukesh Sahni and the Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal led by Upendra Kushwaha: They all have followers and supporters across communities in the state.

“Chirag’s father had a political status and an uncanny ability to understand voters' sentiments in every election and go with alliances whose chances were higher. As a result, his LJP stayed with the ruling party in the Centre,” Gyanendra Yadav, associate professor of Sociology, the College of Commerce in Patna, said.

“If the vote bank of Lalu Prasad revolves around Muslims and Yadavs, Nitish Kumar’s on Lav-Kush (Kurmi and Koeri), then it can be easily said that Chirag Paswan commands respect among Dalits and EBC (economically backward class) communities,” he added.

During the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the LJP under the leadership of Ram Vilas Paswan contested six seats and won all of them. After his death before the 2020 Assembly election, his son supported the BJP, deeply damaging his ties with chief minister Nitish Kumar.

Possibly because of the Paswan factor, JD(U) came down from 71 seats in 2015 to 43 in the 2020 Assembly election.

Despite contesting the elections in alliance with the JD(U), the BJP was accused of supporting Paswan who had fielded several rebel candidates from the saffron party. This became one of the reasons for Nitish Kumar’s party to cut ties and exit from the NDA.

Chirag Paswan’s support from the Paswan community

The Paswan community has demonstrated its full support for the younger Paswan when the latter fielded as many as 137 candidates, mostly against Nitish Kumar’s JDU in the 2020 assembly polls.

The LJP managed to win only one seat but it secured 6% of the votes, inflicting heavy electoral damage to the JD-U.

As caste plays a critical role in most parts of the Hindi heartland including Bihar, there is little doubt over his support from within the community who had idolised his father Ram Vilas as their “hero” for decades.

Paswan, in fact, is said to have a strategic hold over voters in areas like in Hajipur (Vaishali), Jamui, Samastipur, Lakhisarai and some other places of Bihar.

Bihar has 16% population of Scheduled Castes of which, the Paswans constitute 6% of Bihar’s voters. While the allegiance among the other castes is divided among the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist)-Liberation and also the JD-U, the Paswans have solidly backed the LJP over the years.

A family divide over politics

Paswan’s uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras, currently a union minister, fell out with him following Ram Vilas’s death, resulting in a split within the LJP.

Both uncle and nephew have repeatedly made public their unwillingness to be part of any coalition, which includes the other.

Although the younger Paswan has not made any fresh statement about his uncle during recent political developments, he has made it clear that his party would 'without any doubt' contest the Lok Sabha polls from Hajipur—a seat his father nurtured over multiple terms, which, however, is currently held by his uncle.