Agra’s election dynamics: A complex interplay of communities

Agra Though Agra is considered as the dalit capital of north India, interestingly it is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has won all three elections since 2009, after the constituency was declared reserved.

Jatavs, who belong to Schedule Castes, are second here only to the dominant Vaishya community and are considered loyal voters of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but the Samajwadi Party, armed with the PDA formula is also making inroads into the much sought after Jatav vote bank this election.

After tasting success in 1999 and 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was reduced to an insignificant third position in Agra in the general elections held in the past 15 years and the fight was mainly between the BSP and the BJP. This time, these two parties declared their candidates for quite early. The SP took long to decide the candidate from Agra reserved seat and has now finalised a Jatav candidate .

The choice of candidate from the dominant Jatav community is being seen as a change in the SP’s election strategy . After breaking of alliance with the BSP in 2019, the SP began outreach towards the large dalit base, believed to be constituting around 20 % of UP’s population.

For the first time, the Samajwadi Party units celebrated Jayanti of ‘Manyawar Kanshiram’, the founder leader of Bahujan Samaj Party. Events were organised at party offices on March 15, 2023 all over the state to remember Kanshiram and on April 03, 2023, Akhilesh Yadav unveiled a statue of Kanshiram at Rae Bareli, saying that his party was out to unite ‘bahujan samaj’ and not to make a dent in it. He minced no words in reminding of the association between his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and Manyawar Kanshiram for the impact created in UP politics decades ago.

Recently, an old loyalist of Mulayam Singh Yadav and dalit face of the party, Ramjilal Suman from Agra was named for Rajya Sabha by SP to communicate a message to dalit voters in Agra on the eve of parliamentary elections. And now, naming of a footwear businessman and prominent Jatav face, Suresh Chand Kardam as SP candidate goes to prove the commitment of Akhilesh Yadav towards PDA, his term coined for backward, dalit and minority combine.

Not in mainstream politics, Suresh Chand Kardam (63) is more known for being BSP candidate in Mayoral election two decades ago. He stood second to BJP candidate to whom he lost by a close margin. Having a flourishing footwear business, Kardam is a Jatav and was declared SP candidate on Monday night.

To recall, Raj Babbar, a student of Mufeed-e-Aam Inter College in Agra city, won Agra (then a general seat) in 1999 and 2004 for the Samajwadi Party but political pundits gave less credit to the party SP and more to the charisma of Raj Babbar. However, his connect with Agra remained intact despite Bollywood stint.

The BJP has not lost Agra Lok Sabha seat in the last 15 years since it was declared a reserved seat. Former union minister Ram Shankar Katheria won as BJP candidate in 2009 and 2014 but was replaced by Prof SP Singh Baghel in 2019 and BJP scored hat trick of victory . Baghel, a ‘dhangar’ amongst Scheduled Caste is again BJP candidate for 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Having won six out of nine assembly seats in Agra district in the 2007 and 2012 assembly elections, the BSP failed to win any assembly seat in 2017 and 2022 and thus is all out to regain lost ground. It has fielded Pooja Amrohi, daughter of prominent Congress dalit leader Satya Behan, as its candidate from Agra reserved seat .

In this constituency, Jatavs number about 3.50 lakh and are second only to the dominant 4.50 lakh Vaishya voters committed to the BJP. It is fight for these Jatav voters in Agra who are believed to be BSP supporters but Valmikis, also Scheduled Caste and about 1.50 lakh in number, are trusted by the BJP .

The Samajwadi Party is also banking on 2.50 lakh Muslim voters, another constituent of the PDA. Brahmins comprise about 1.70 lakh votes while Thakur are 1.50 lakh in number. BJP candidate Prof SP Singh Baghel had won thrice from nearby Jalesar parliamentary seat as SP candidate and is confident of 3 lakh backward voters in Agra.

Past Election Result of Agra reserved constituency

Lok Sabha 2019

Prof SP Singh Baghel (BJP) Vote - 56.48 %

Manoj Kumar Soni (SP + BSP+ RLD) Vote – 38.01 %

Preeta Harit (SP) Vote – 3.94 %

Lok Sabha 2014

Ram Shankar Katheria (BJP) Vote - 54.53 %

Narain Singh Suman (BSP) Vote – 26.48 %

Maharaj Singh Dhangar (SP) Vote – 12.58 %

Upendra Singh (Congress) Vote – 3.25 %

Lok Sabha 2009

Ram Shankar Katheria (BJP) Vote - 31.48 %

Kunwar Chand Vakil (BSP) Vote – 29.98 %

Ramjilal Suman (SP) Vote – 21.85 %

Prabhu Dayal Katheria (Congress) Vote – 14.43 %